Historic Map
To say this presidential election is historic is sort of like saying, “That Hannah Montana sure seems to be popular.” We’ve got a black man as a major party nominee for the first time. His opponent is a social conservative who can’t seem to gain traction with other social conservatives due to his willingness to work with Democrats on government reform. We nearly had a woman win a major party nomination, “experience” seems to be a dirty word for the general electorate, and, with no incumbent running for office, both parties’ primaries were a free-for-all attempting to determine their destinies for the future.
But the historic nature of this election has taken yet another turn in the last few weeks. Now it seems both parties are talking about redrawing the electoral map. States that were solidly red or blue, are suddenly purple.
Democrats are euphoric over the fact that Colorado, once a Republican stronghold, is now considered a battleground state. Even Republicans have conceded they’re going to have to fight to keep the Rocky Mountain State red. It’s been trending Democratic for several elections now, and the Democratic National Convention will be held in the capitol city of Denver.
And it’s not the only state. Virginia is also being targeted by the Obama campaign as winnable. Neither Al Gore nor John Kerry won a single Southern state, but now one of it’s biggest prizes might be up for grabs. It hasn’t gone Democratic since . . . was Thomas Jefferson a Democrat?
What’s more, this could change the status of traditional battleground states. George W. Bush won two elections by netting Ohio and Florida. But if Obama can get a few of these new swing states to turn blue, he could conceivably win the election without Ohio or Florida.
But before Democrats celebrate the new map, there are other states that could potentially flip the other way. The McCain campaign is suggesting it can win in California – the richest prize in the election with its 54 electoral votes. The Golden State hasn’t gone for a Republican since the first President Bush, and registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a nearly two-to-one margin. But with McCain being from neighboring Arizona and getting a strong endorsement from California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, could one of the most liberal states in the union turn red?
Then there’s the matter of Michigan. With its strong union presence, it trends Democratic. Yet how much fallout will there be from the party stripping Michigan of its delegates for holding its primary too soon? Barak Obama wasn’t even on the ballot there as a result. Will that cost him key votes?
It’s possible, even probable that none of these scenarios will come to fruition, and traditional battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida, and Missouri will tip the scales again. But the possibility of several states being turncoats to their usual leanings underscores once again the historic nature of this election. It has already been groundbreaking. It promises to remain so. |